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Dynasty cycle counting (penalty theory) the easy way
There are already explanations of penalty theory out there, such as this one by chaotic_iak, this one by tckmn, a section of Teal’s broader Heyawake guide, and the original Twitter thread by agnomy (in Japanese; I believe agnomy was the first person to describe penalty theory). However, none of them—that I know of—explain it in the way I find most intuitive. So I want to describe the way I think about penalty theory, in case this explanation is useful for anyone else (and to solidify my own understanding).
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